CONVECTIVE FORECAST
VALID 06Z MON 29/12 - 06Z TUE 30/12 2003
ISSUED: 28/12 23:18Z
FORECASTER: GROENEMEIJER

General thunderstorms are forecast across southern parts of the central Mediterranean Sea and across the German Bight

SYNOPSIS

Less than a slight risk. A longwave trough is located over western Europe. An intense mid/upper shortwave trough is expected to round the base of the longwave and move northeastward into Italy. At the ground a cold front will be located located near Corsica and Sardinia at the begin of the forecast period. A few thunderstorms are expected along the cold front. Most of those will likely be elevated. Due to their elevated nature and marginal instability severe weather is not expected to occur with these storms. Within the polar air-mass behind the front a few storms are expected across southern portions of the Mediterranean Sea. Low instability implies the risk of severe weather with these storms is low.

DISCUSSION

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